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War in Ukraine / March 31

The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter by sending your email address to [email protected], you will be added to the base.

Ukraine is liberating its cities. But the situation in Mariupol is critical

For the past two days, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has been reporting significant progress. Dozens of cities in the Kyiv region, which recently were controlled by Russian troops, have been liberated. Counterattacks were also carried out in the Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions. In total, more than 30 cities were liberated.

Occupant casualties

It is possible that this is due to the withdrawal of Russian troops. Despite claims by Russian authorities that they are withdrawing troops from northern Ukraine, some militants remain. Now the Ukrainian army is fighting them. They are asking residents not to hurry back to their hometowns and homes: the Russians have mined roads, apartments, shops, and even abandoned vehicles. In addition, in the Kyiv region it is not recommended to go to the forests – the mining area is huge, and several civilians have already detonated mines.

At the same time, the situation in Mariupol is critical. People are not allowed to leave the city, now the occupiers are trying to establish control over the city. Today, the city, once home to 500,000 people, looks like ruins, leaving about 100,000 people without access to food and water, without heat. According to the city authorities, at least $ 10 billion will be needed to rebuild Mariupol.

Belgorod

On the night of April 1, an explosion at an oil depot took place in Belgorod, Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry claims that this is the work of two Ukrainian helicopters. A video of them has even appeared online, but it has not yet been possible to prove its authenticity. The Russian side points out that strikes on Russian cities are the reason for the failure of negotiations. Ukraine refuses to take responsibility, although it says it will “neither confirm nor deny” such allegations.

Diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, indicated in $, million

Russian oil – in India

Despite the fact that the world has not yet stopped using Russian oil and gas, demand is falling. At least this proves the fact that Russia sells oil at a big discount. The new buyer of oil from Russia is India. Over the past month, the country has already ordered 13 million barrels, although for the entire 2021 order was only 16 million barrels. In India, the decision to increase orders is justified directly – the discount: it was a third of the market price. In addition, the price of oil itself fell: after the US decision to launch 1 million barrels of its strategic reserves, the price per barrel fell to $ 100. In any case, for Russia, whose budget is $ 42 / barrel, even a discount is still profitable.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Donetsk region:

  • 2 people are injured.
  • The school building where humanitarian aid was given out was shelled.
  • At least 24 civilian objects, incl. houses and a school were damaged by shelling. 5 people were killed, including 2 children, 22 people were injured, including 4 children.  In addition, two people, including a child, were killed while trying to evacuate from Mariupol near Melekino. 

Kharkiv region:

  • Shelling of Northern Saltivka, fires broke out in 5 multi-storey residential buildings. Two retired women were injured.
  • A missiles attack was carried out in the area of the city center, and artillery fire was also carried out in other areas. The territory of the Ukrainian Power Machinery Plant (former Turboatom) was also shelled, the buildings and equipment were damaged   46 shelling of the city from artillery, mortars and tanks, also 170 shelling from MRL “Grad” were carried out totally in a day. 
Chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage as of March 31:

Dnipro region:

  • Missile attack on a military unit, 2 missiles. The administrative building and the fuel depot were destroyed, and a fire broke out. 5 people were injured.
  • Infrastructure was destroyed by a missile attack.
  • Two settlements in the region are shelled, 3 of the fired shells were equipped with prohibited cluster munitions. 

Luhansk region:

  • A residential area was shelled, 1 person died under the rubble, also warehouses with an area of 200 square meters are on fire.
Diagram of known Airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths:

New laws

Russia:

  • [Military service] A decree was signed on spring conscription from April 1 to July 15. It is planned to conscript 134k people.
  • [Restrictions] During the moratorium from April 1, 2022, until the end of 2022, creditors will have no right to initiate bankruptcy of debtors, but the debtors will be able to file for bankruptcy themselves or to refuse the moratorium. At the same time, the recovery of funds and the sale of property through bailiffs will be possible.
  • [Support for the economy] Putin signed a decree obliging “unfriendly countries” to open accounts with GazpromBank to pay for gas supplies, and contracts that do not comply with the requirements of the decree will be terminated. At the same time, accounts are opened in foreign currency. Gazprombank on the Moscow Exchange will sell the received currency for rubles. The Government Commission on Foreign Investments may issue permits for gas payments not in rubles.
  • [Support for the economy] Putin signed a decree on monthly payments from April 1 to families with children from 8 to 17 years old who need social support, if the average per capita income does not exceed the subsistence level in the region. Social payment will be 50% of the subsistence minimum.
  • [Support for the economy] A draft law that bans setting the price of a contract in relation to foreign currency or world commodity indices. The law may lead to the introduction of full prepayment for goods and the abandonment of long-term contracts. If the parties of an existing contract do not agree on a new contract value within 30 days after the entry of the law into force, then the exchange rate against the ruble as of January 1, 2022, for $1 = 74.29 rubles will be applied automatically.
  • [Response to the sanctions] A draft law, which will allow avoiding the arrest of sea and river vessels of the Russian Federation, which were built at state-owned enterprises of the Russian Federation and such vessels were acquired by private companies on lease, has been submitted for consideration.
  • [Restrictions] Regulation of the seed and food market:
  1. The export of seeds of wheat, meslin, rye, barley, and corn is allowed again.
  2. It is forbidden to export rapeseed and sunflower seeds from April 1 to August 31.
  3. Until August 31, soybeans are imported through 4 checkpoints. List of countries and territories where regulation is not carried out: countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, ORDLO, unrecognized Republics of Abkhazia and Ossetia.
  4. Sunflower grist – an additional duty on imports outside the Eurasian Economic Union.
  5. All goods imported from the Russian Federation are subject to an additional duty of 20% of the cost, except for export to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union until August 31.

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