War in Ukraine / April 7

The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

Despite the war, the ruble is getting more expensive

A phenomenon that no one was prepared for is happening in russia right now. After the start of the war, the official ruble exchange rate jumped to 121 per dollar. The unofficial rate is almost two hundred rubles. It seemed that the situation would get worse. Instead, the ruble has consolidated over the past month and today costs about 75 rubles per dollar. According to economists, the rise could be even higher – up to 65 rubles per dollar.

The reason for such changes – the policy of the Central Bank of, or rather, mass bans on almost any foreign exchange transaction, as a result, the foreign exchange market is literally non-existent.

• Currency withdrawal restrictions
• When buying currency – a commission of 12% (this is a lot).
• Companies must sell 80% of all currency received.
• Restrictions on international transfers.

As a result, companies sell currency, and there is almost no one to buy it. Thanks to this ruble succeeds to rise in price.

In addition, russia continues to sell oil and gas. According to various estimates, revenue will range from $250 billion to $340 billion by the end of 2022, which is much more than in 2021. This is facilitated by both the rise in prices for raw materials in the world and the sanctions that make oil and gas more expensive. Even with the fact that Russia is forced to sell oil at a big discount (up to 1/4 of the price), the country still receives huge foreign exchange earnings.

$4 billion/day

Instead, Ukraine’s losses from the war are enormous. Daily budget expenditures – UAH 2 billion (about $ 65 million), and losses – $4 billion. This refers to the destruction of infrastructure, lost profits, losses of future GDP. Due to the war and the blockade of ports, the country has to cancel its export potential. Inflation rose to 13.5%. At the same time, the hryvnia strengthened. We will remind, in Ukraine since the beginning of war the course is fixed, but currency operations are strongly limited. Against the background of panic, the black market jumped to UAH 40/$, but today it almost corresponds to the official figure – UAH 32/$ in exchange offices against 31/$ from the National Bank of Ukraine.

Ukraine estimates total losses at $1 trillion.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Dnipro region:

• A boat with 14 civilians, 3 of whom were children, was shelled. They were trying to get out of the village of Pervomaivka of Kherson district through the Kakhovka reservoir. 3 people died, also 1 child. 2 more people are missing, 7 are hospitalized.
• Missile wreckage falling, one person was injured in the leg.

Luhansk region:

• As a result of the shelling, 1 civilian was killed.
• A total of 21 strikes were made during the day on settlements: Kremіnna, Popasna (morning), Novozvanivka, Hirske (morning), Rubizhne (day), Lysychansk (evening). As a result of the shelling, 24 fires broke out in the residential sector.

Zaporizhzhya region:

• As a result of the shelling, a gas pipeline was damaged. 
• In Orikhiv, 8 residential buildings were damaged.

Donetsk region:

• Shelling of the railway bridge near the station Barvinkove. The movement of evacuation trains from Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Liman was blocked.
• Helicopter attack on Vuhledar. 1 person was injured.
• Russian troops fired on the icebreaker “Kapitan Belousov”, on which there was a civilian crew, in the commercial port. There are injured, 1 person died.
• Private houses were damaged, a woman was wounded.
• 5 houses were hit. 1 person was injured.

Kharkiv region:

• There were artillery shells at Oleksiivka, Saltivka and the KhTZ region, after which there was a rocket attack on the city. A woman was killed and 14 others were injured.
• The Center for Primary Health Care was destroyed, the buildings of the in-patient department of the central hospital, as well as an industrial enterprise, were damaged. In addition, private houses in different parts of the city were partially destroyed and seriously damaged.

Zhytomyr region:

• The object of railway infrastructure was damaged.

Odessa region:

• There were 3 rockets fired from the territory of Crimea, 2 buildings were damaged, there are victims, their number is being specified.

New laws

Ukraine:

• [Support for the economy] By the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers, amendments to the Procedure for providing employers with compensation for labor costs for employment within displaced persons as a result of hostilities during martial law in Ukraine were introduced.
• [Support for the economy] Amendments to the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the issues of passing humanitarian aid across the border of Ukraine in terms of the possibility of registering electronic declarations have been introduced.
• [War] The Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers approved the free and contract-free use of the National Telecommunications Network during the period of martial law and within three months after its end.

Russia:

• [Response to the sanctions] Roskomnadzor introduced a ban on the distribution of Google advertising and its information resources as an object of advertising. According to Roskomnadzor, YouTube is a platform for the dissemination of fakes about a special operation in Ukraine that discredit the Russian army.

War in Ukraine. Weekly digest of the key events