War in Ukraine / April 10

The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

45% reduction in GDP

The World Bank has forecast that Ukraine’s GDP could shrink by as much as 45% by the end of the year due to the war, and more than half of the population will live in poverty. Before the war there were about 15%. This is a huge number, which is caused by the losses from the war right now, the migration of Ukrainians to the west and lost profits.

Another huge problem is exports. According to farmers, they will be able to sow from 70% to 80%. It also depends on whether the security of Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts can be organized. According to farmers, half of the harvest can be exported. The question is how to send them. The main export artery for Ukraine is the sea. Today, 90% of Ukraine’s port facilities are blocked, some are destroyed. Ukrzaliznytsia, a government-owned railway company, is trying to export to Europe by rail, but this option has its limitations: it lacks the infrastructure and capacity. The management of Ukrhaliznytsia claims that if necessary, exports can be dramatically increased in a few months if the necessary investments are made. It is still unclear who is ready to single them out now.

The Ukrainian leadership is still trying to reassure the population and claims that the indicators are not critical. In particular, annual inflation is now expected at 11.2%, while before the war – about 9%. “The change is moderate,” said Kyrylo Shevchenko, chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine. For comparison, after the start of the war in Donbas in 2014, this figure reached 40%, and the hryvnia fell several times, while now it has fallen by no more than 20%. At the same time, according to Shevchenko, business is recovering and trying to adapt to the new realities of war. The biggest problem is the disruption of logistics.

To support business, the government makes big concessions: tax cuts, loans, benefits. Thus, farmers have already been given more than 2 billion hryvnias in loans, the annual program is designed for at least $1 billion. In addition, the state is helping to relocate business to safer regions and plans to set up a fund to rebuild business after the war.

At the same time, russia’s GDP is projected to fall by 11.2%. But due to high oil and gas prices in russia, the country will be able to receive huge amounts of foreign exchange earnings to maintain the situation in the country at a stable and high level.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Dnipropetrovsk region:

• The infrastructure facility was destroyed. A fire broke out in an area of 600 m², one person was injured. In total, 7 missile strikes were fired on the territory of the region during the night.
• Missile attack on the airport, the infrastructure near the airport was destroyed.
• Attack on the infrastructure facility. Presumably there are casualties.
• Three missile attacks on the airport. 6 DSNS rescuers who worked at the site of the previous attack were wounded. Yevheniya Dudka, press secretary of the regional DSNS, is in a very serious condition.
• A civilian while grazing cattle, picked a cluster munition up and blew himself up on it.

Luhansk region:

• At night, as a result of the shelling, the houses in Lysychansk and Komyshuvakha were destroyed, in the morning a school and 2 multi-storey buildings in Severodonetsk were shelled, apartments burned out, 2 pensioners were evacuated.

As a result of daytime shelling of Severodonetsk, 2 apartment buildings and a private clinic were seriously damaged, windows were broken in many houses.

In total, 26 attacks were recorded during the day, as a result of which 16 residential buildings were destroyed, 11 of which were in Kreminna.

Kharkiv region:

• Shelling of the residential buildings in the private sector, the power supply of part of the city was disrupted. 3 more people were injured. Presumably, cluster munitions were used during the shelling.
• A total of 66 attacks were made on the districts of Kharkiv: Saltivka, Pyatykhatky, and Kholodna Hora during the day. As a result of shelling, 5 civilians were killed and 7 more were injured.
• Shelling of the civilian infrastructure, there is a seven-year-old child among the dead.
• In the village of Slatyne, as a result of the shelling, 1 person was killed, 1 more was wounded. Civil facilities were destroyed, the supply of gas and electricity was disrupted. Russian troops use prohibited cluster munitions, incl. parachute bombs.

Zaporizhzhya region:

• Shelling of the territory of the village. Residential houses and cars were damaged.
• An X-29 missile hit a private area and destroyed a rural chemical toilet.
• Shelling of the settlements: Hulyaipole, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Verkhnya Tersa, Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk, Shcherbaky, Preobrazhenka, Kamianske, Orikhiv, Mala Tokmachka, Yurkivka, Chervona Krynytsya, Novoukrainske.

Also, distribution gas pipelines of medium and low pressure were damaged as a result of the shelling. There is no gas supply in 48 settlements. Also, as a result of the shelling, power lines were damaged, and 614 residential buildings were de-energized. A total of 411 residential buildings have been destroyed since February 24.

Mykolaiv region:

• Missiles hit the hangars of a Qatari enterprise, a security guard was wounded. Another missile was shot down by air defense, and the wreckage fell into the forest, as a result a fire broke out.

Donetsk region:

• After the shelling, a 61-year-old man went out into the yard and blew himself up on a cluster munition lying there.
• Shelling of Mariupol, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Pokrovsk, Krasnohorivka, Velyka Novosilka, Ivanivka, Pisky, Ocheretine and Vozdvyzhenka. Multi-apartment and private houses, schools and agricultural buildings were damaged. 1 civilian of Vuhledar and Ivanivka was killed, 4 more people were injured.

Kharkiv region:

• Buildings, residential buildings, an enterprise, a farm and cars were damaged, and a gas station was completely destroyed. 4 people were injured.

New laws

Ukraine:

• [Martial law] The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine decided to create a working group to protect the rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens who are on the territory of EU member states and other states as temporarily displaced persons.
• [Martial law] The registration of internally displaced persons has been extended until April 30.
• [Support for the economy] The Cabinet of Ministers approved a loan from Canada for 500 million Canadian dollars for 10 years.
• [Martial law] The law on creating conditions for ensuring food security under martial law came into force. The law is aimed at the rapid involvement of the country’s agricultural land in production.
• [War] President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree awarding 430 soldiers, 55 of them posthumously.

Russia:

• [Support for the economy] The Russian government will increase its reserve fund by 273.4 billion rubles.
• [Support for the economy] The Central Bank of Russia has canceled the commission of 12% for the purchase of foreign currency through brokers, which has been in effect since March 3.

ORDLO:

• [War] By order of the government of the occupied DPR, the activities of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission are prohibited on the territory.

War in Ukraine. Weekly digest of the key events