War in Ukraine / April 21
Russia will not stop the war because of internal pressure
One of the reasons why russia does not plan to continue negotiations with Ukraine right now and reach an agreement quickly is its own propaganda. The Kremlin has two wings, one for the war and the other for a speedy end. The second option is now losing. Russian propaganda about Nazism in Ukraine has politicized russians so much that they don’t want to accept any possible end to the war in Ukraine other than complete victory. Moreover, this will be considered not just the takeover of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but also the capture of Kyiv.
This is confirmed by Putin’s ratings. His support among the population has risen to record highs, despite russia’s heavy losses in both the war and economic sanctions. According to opinion polls, russians believe in the need for war and are ready to support their country’s president. Moreover, polls in 2021 showed that the people of russia are close to the narrative that “Ukraine is part of russia” and that Ukrainian and russians are all one nation. That is why stopping the war right now and limiting ourselves to small victories is not an option for Putin. Moreover, he fears that the loss could lead to protests in russian cities.
Instead, the political wing that supports the war is growing its own appetites. Today’s goal is full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as over the south of Ukraine, which will allow organizing the land border with Crimea. The maximum plan is to Transnistria. The idea of capturing Kyiv is not yet in time, instead, russia wants to influence the central part of Ukraine. Whether this scenario will be implemented will be known after the great battle for Donbas.
In 2018, Putin announced that russia should enter the top five economies in the world. Now it is clear that this will not happen. Even with high oil prices, the country’s GDP will fall by 10% to 12% by the end of the year. There are predictions that the decline may be even greater, it will all depend on the speed of foreign business leaving russia. As a result, russia will not be in the top five, it will give way to Indonesia, and in the next two years, it may be lower than Brazil.
Airstrike, missile and MRL damage
- Russian forces were shelling Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Rubizhne and Hirske communities (1, 2), as well as Novodruzhesk, Zolote and Kreminna (1, 2). The fighting continues in Rubizhne, Popasna and Novotoshkivske (1, 2).
- 11 cases of shelling were documented in the region, in Severodonetsk residential houses were partly destroyed, 2 – in Lysychansk, 3 – in other locations. 4 civilians and 3 policemen were injured.
- Over the whole day, Russian troops made ~50 shellings of the districts Saltivka, Selyshche Zhukovskoho, Pyatykhatky, KhTZ, Oleksiivka and Novi Domy. Consequently, multi-strorey and stand-alone residential houses, storage and production facilities, garages and cars were damaged and destroyed; 2 markets were completely destroyed by fire. In Zhukovskoho village the missile hit the car, 2 people inside died. 5 more people were injured.
- The shell with Russian propaganda leaflets hit through the roof of a residential house, smashed the window and detonated outside the building.
- The shelling with the prohibited cluster mnitions of the residential area in the Zavodskyi district. Civil infrastructure and residential houses were damaged: the windows and buildings siding was damaged.
- 3 missile hits on the railway hub completely destroyed the track and overhead system. The nearby buildings were damaged, power supply was diturbed. 5 people were hospitalized.
- Osokorivka and other towns near the Dnipropetrovsk region were shelled. Private buildings were destroyed.
- According to Andriy Raikovych, the head of Kropyvnytskyi military administration, Ukrainian air defence shot down 2 rockets.
- Missile attack in Zaporizhzhya. 8 people were injured, the building of a company’s recreation center was damaged. The blast wave damaged the windows in 4 cars of the Zaporizhzhya-Lviv evacuation train.
- Village shelling close to Hulyaipole. The gaps between the series of the strikes did not exceed 2 minutes (1, 2)
- [War] Decree of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy No. 264/2022 on awarding the title of Hero of Ukraine (posthumously).
- [War] Decree of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy No. №265/2022 on awarding the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with state awards.
- [Other] The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted bill No. 4284 “On the de-Sovietization of the legislation of Ukraine”, according to which it is envisaged to cancel the effect of normative legal acts of the Soviet period. In addition, the implementation of the Law provides for the development of drafts in Housing, Labor and Administrative Tort Codes of Ukraine by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
- [Other] The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has decided to recall People’s Deputy from the Opposition Platform for Life Viktor Medvedchuk from the position of a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Human Rights, De-occupation and Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories in Donetsk, Luhansk Regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, National Minorities and Interethnic Relations.
- [Sanctions] The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a draft law No. 7194 on improving the effectiveness of the sanctions related to the assets of individuals. The law specifies the circumstances under which individuals may be included in the sanctions list; the grounds and procedure for applying a new type of sanctions are also determined – collection of assets in state revenue.
This was the free part of the military brief
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- Airstrike, missile and MLRS damage
- Civilian casualties
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- New laws
- Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
- War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
- Alternative loss estimates
- Data archive.
- Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage, diagram of known airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, diagram of average duration of the air alerts in the regions.