War in Ukraine / May 3

The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

Oil embargo against Russia

The European Commission has developed a sixth package of sanctions against Russia. In addition to new sanctions against people and companies, the long-awaited embargo on Russian oil. The idea of ​​the EU is as follows:

• By the end of November 2022 to abandon the import of crude oil.
• By the end of 2022 to abandon the import of petroleum products.
• An exception is made for two countries: Hungary and Slovakia, which are 100% dependent on Russian energy. They are given a special period of 20 months to find new sources of supply.

It is important to understand that the above is just a proposal that will be finalized. The EU will impose sanctions on oil imports only if all 27 member states vote in favor.

Now there is a danger that such a single decision will not be. In addition to Hungary and Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria are asking for a postponement, as well as Austria, whose country’s leadership is generally wary of any sanctions due to its proximity to Russia. Europe is heavily dependent on oil and gas from Russia, and it is possible, but long, to find alternative suppliers: this requires, in particular, increasing cooperation with the United States and the Middle East. It takes time.

For Russia, the European market is one of the largest. In addition, it diversifies markets and thus sells oil at a high price. Now, due to Europe’s gradual abandonment of oil, Russia is turning its attention to China. China is ready to increase the purchase of petroleum products, but becoming the largest consumer dictates its terms and asks for big discounts, which already reach 30%. However, even by selling oil at $ 75 a barrel, Russia is making money: its budget is $ 42 a barrel.

The Ukrainian side for a long time asked the world to abandon Russian oil and gas. For comparison: during the two months of the war, Europe provided aid to Ukraine for less than $ 10 billion and bought energy resources from Russia for more than $ 50 billion. These revenues allow the Russian leadership to avoid visible economic problems and continue the war against Ukraine.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

• As a result of the shelling by Russian troops, a fire broke out in an area of ​​~ 800 m² in the administrative building of the Ukrainian plant of the Philip Morris tobacco company.
• As a result of the community shelling by Russian troops in Zolochiv, 25 residential buildings were destroyed and damaged, cars were destroyed, pigs and cows were burned, and two people were hospitalized. In Udy, 11 houses were destroyed and damaged; in Odnorobivka, houses were also destroyed and a school was damaged.
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Zaporizhzhia region:

• The shelling damaged the school building, its roof, and its windows. In addition, 12 houses were damaged. As a result of shelling, two people died from shrapnel wounds.
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Luhansk region:

• Russian troops shelled Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Popasna, Hirske, Zolote, Orikhove and Bobrove. Multi-apartment and private houses were destroyed and damaged. In Syrotyne, Severodonetsk community, an educational institution was damaged, as well as 4 residential buildings, a shopping center, garages and a trading kiosk. In Rubizhne, 6 residential buildings were damaged, another 19 houses were damaged in the Popasna and Hirske communities. A civilian got killed in Popasna.
• As a result of the shelling of Russian troops, private houses were destroyed.
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Kherson region:

• As a result of the community shelling by Russian troops, private houses were destroyed and damaged. A woman got killed in Zahradivka, another 6 people got wounded, 2 of them were seriously injured.
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Vinnytsia region:

• Air defense shot down 2 missiles fired by Russian troops. The places where the wreckage fell are being established.
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Kirovohrad region:

• Russian troops inflicted two strikes on the traction substation, premises and equipment were damaged, and 27 tons of transformer oil caught fire. Two people got injured.
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Transcarpathia region:

• Russian troops launched a missile at the railway substation, as a result a fire broke out. Windows were shattered in buildings within a radius of 500 meters, cars were damaged by rocket fragments. The gas supply to the village was interrupted.
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Kyiv region:

• Air defense shot down a missile fired by the Russian army on the approach to the city near the Odesa highway.
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Mykolaiv region:

• In the morning, Russian troops shelled Korabelnyi district. As a result, critical infrastructure facilities were hit. At night, the sleeping area was shelled again. The blast wave and shrapnel damaged private cars and houses of local residents: windows were shattered, the roof was damaged.
• […]

Donetsk region:

• As a result of the shelling by Russian troops, 2 women and 1 man, who were going to get water, were torn apart by a shell. The bodies of the dead will be buried in the playground, as there is no more room for new graves in cemeteries.
• Russian troops shelled the territory of the Avdiivka Coke Plant. The control room was destroyed, there was an ignition of tanks with resin and barrels with benzene. 10 employees of the plant got killed, waiting for the bus after the end of the shift, another 20 people were seriously injured. As a result of repeated shelling, a worker of the gas rescue service received a shrapnel wound.
• […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

• Russian troops inflicted two strikes on railway infrastructure facilities, destroyed a traction substation and railway electrical networks. One person was severely contused and injured. The second missile hit the open area. According to the statement of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense, the substation was destroyed in the area of ​​the Pyatykhatky station.
• […]

Odesa region:

• Russian troops launched a missile attack on the territory of the city. As a result of two missiles hitting, the infrastructure facilities were destroyed. At the same time, 3 more missiles were shot down over the region, as well as an attack UAV “Forpost”.
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Sumy region:

• There were 8 shells fired at the outskirts of the village from the territory of the Russian Federation.
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Lviv region:

• Russian troops attacked 3 power substations. As a result, the city’s energy and water supply was disrupted, including those of medical institutions. Two people received shrapnel wounds. Two more missiles shot down air defense over the L’viv region. According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, power substations in the areas of the L’viv and Pidbirtsi railway stations have been destroyed.
• […]

New laws

Russia:

• [Other] Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 4, 2022 No. 259 “On Amendments to the Regulations on the  Russian Federation Ministry of Defense, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of August 16, 2004 No. 1082”.
• [Other] Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 258 dated May 4, 2022 “On Amendments to the List of Strategic Enterprises and Strategic Joint Stock Companies approved by Decree No. 1009 of the President of the Russian Federation dated August 4, 2004”.
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This was the free part of the military brief

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In a paid version:

• Airstrike, missile and MLRS damage
• Civilian casualties
• Video of russian prisoners
• New laws
• Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
• War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
• Alternative loss estimates
• Data archive.
• Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage, diagram of known airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, diagram of average duration of the air alerts in the regions.