War in Ukraine / May 12

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Molfar publishes an expert view of Michael Clarke, who agreed to present his assessment of the situation of the war in Ukraine. The text of the author is published without changes.

👉 Ukraine Military Situation: 28/29 April 2022 [Expert View]

The protracted phase of the war begins

A protracted phase of the war is beginning in Ukraine, said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. According to him, Ukraine manages to deter Russian troops and keep the defense. The problem is with counterattacks.

In general, the troops of the Russian Federation are advancing, but very slowly. Often it is no more than a few kilometers a week. This is hindered by both natural obstacles, such as the Seversky-Donets River, which the Russian army cannot force, and the resistance of Ukrainian troops. Experts point out that Ukraine for a long time had strong fortifications in the eastern direction and can resist, having the necessary reserves.

The problem is that by restraining the Russian army, Ukraine itself will not be able to counterattack. Army lacks heavy weapons, especially artillery capable of long-range fire. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukraine already receives weapons from foreign partners, but not on the scale it needs. In addition, it is often a very different technique that requires maintenance and repair, which is not always possible due to lack of skills of mechanics and spare parts for repair.

It is also worth remembering that everything that prevents Russia from organizing an offensive today will prevent Ukraine from counterattacking. In particular, we are talking about the river Seversky-Donets, which is over 1000 km long. Forcing the river will be a problem for Ukraine as well, and without forcing the river it is impossible to organize a powerful bridgehead for the development of offensive actions.

All this is not in Ukraine’s favor. Kherson region is occupied, in the east – active hostilities. The country loses $5 billion a month and has to rely only on the help of Western partners. At the same time, everyone points out that only Ukraine’s military victory is possible now – Putin is not ready for talks.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

• Russia launched two missiles at Zolochiv, as a result of which a number of enterprises buildings and equipment were destroyed. At about 3:00 am, Russian troops shelled the village of Udy. One house was destroyed, another one was damaged. Later, in the morning they hit the Udy village again. As a result of the missile strike, a woodworking enterprise was destroyed. A direct missile strike on Svitlychne destroyed the first-aid post. The Russian army also shelled the village of Oleksandrivka. 3 people were wounded. Also, 2 people were wounded in Balakliya.
• Russian troops launched a missile at the Kharkov airport. They also shelled the area of Saltivka. In Slobidskyi district, grass and garbage caught fire on an area of ​​2 hectares. Two trolleybuses were damaged. During the day a total number of 12 shelling were carried out as a result of which fires started.
• […]

Sumy region:

• ~20 shells were fired by the Russian troops from heavy artillery to the side of the residential area of the Novye Virki village at a distance of ~6 km from the border with the Russian Federation. According to the State Border Service of Ukraine, presumably the fire was conducted using self-propelled guns. As a result of the shelling, adjoining buildings were destroyed and residential buildings were partially damaged. A 67-year-old local resident died from his injuries in his own yard.
• […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

• As a result of the shelling, a garage of 30 sq.m. and a car caught fire.
• Russian troops shelled the city of Hulyaipole. As a result of shelling from heavy artillery weapons, about a dozen private houses of the civilians, as well as 8 multi-storey buildings, several shops and a post office were damaged. The house and garage were on fire. According to the preliminary established data, 3 local residents were injured.
• […]

Luhansk region:

• During the day the Russians opened fire 31 times on the Luhans’k region. Hirske and Popasna districts were under attack. Nearly 60 houses were destroyed: 15 houses in Vrubivka, 12 houses in Zolote, 11 houses in Komyshuvakha, 6 houses in Toshkivka, 4 houses in Troits’ke and 9 more in other villages of the Popasna district. The bridge in Rubizhne was damaged. Rescuers extinguished the fire of a coal warehouse in Lysychansk during the day.
• […]

Poltava region:

• Russian troops launched twelve X-22 type supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles on the territory of the city. 10 missiles hit the city’s infrastructure and facilities on the territory of the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, as a result of which a fire started at the plant. The city started experiencing interruptions in the water and electricity supply, mobile communications and Internet access failures. 2 cruise missiles were shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the help of the Stinger MANPADS.
• […]

Mykolaiv region:

• There was shelling of a metal wagon in Korabel’nyi district with an area of ​​30 sq.m. The roof of the pharmacy on Nikolskaya street in Inhulskyi district with an area of ​​3 sq. m also caught fire. During the day, 13 people were injured. There was shelling of the industrial zone, private sector, kindergarten, library, pet shop on the Yuzhna street. Windows were broken in houses and administrative buildings, walls, entrance doors, signboards, etc. were damaged. Windows were also broken in the prosecutor’s office building in Inhulskyi district. The shelling was carried out with banned cluster munitions.
• […]

Donetsk region:

• As a result of the shelling, houses, garages and shops, gas pipelines were damaged, five polymaterials in a warehouse in the forest caught fire. Near the store, a 55-year-old woman was injured in both legs. In total, 3 people got injured.
• Mariupol,  Svyatohirs’k, Krasnohorivka, Soledar, Bilozers’ke, Yarove, Cherkas’ke, Zaitseve, Tsukuryne, Voshod, Drobysheve, Zhelanne, Pereizne, Sosnove, Fedorivka, Vremivka, Zelene pole were shelled by Russian troops. In total, 49 civilian facilities were damaged in the region: residential buildings, a lyceum, industrial enterprises, medical institutions, a children’s health institution, and life support facilities. 4 people were killed, 5 people were injured. During the shelling of the Ochertyn community, the Smerch MLRS was used. In Svitlodars’k, 2 houses were damaged by ATGMs. In Lyman, a 30-year-old woman died from a shrapnel wound. In Novoselivka-3, a married couple of 76 y.o. and 80 y.o. was killed by a direct hit on the house. In the Bahmut district: shops, the premises of the feldsher-obstetric center and the post office, the building of the factory, the vocational lyceum, the power grid and water supply, outbuildings of private enterprises and grain storage warehouses were damaged. A 45-year-old man was wounded in the village of Zvanivka.
• […]

Chernihiv region:

• As a result of an air strike by Russian troops, 3 people were killed and 14 people were injured. The school and the gymnasium buildings were destroyed, nearby premises of the district state administration, the House of Culture, the hospital, the hostel of the medical college were also damaged.
• […]

Kherson region:

• Russian troops opened fire on a peaceful column of refugees leaving the Kherson region from the city of Beryslav. When the convoy was already on the territory controlled by Ukraine near the village of ​​Bila Krynytsya, the Russian military began shelling. Civilians, including a 68-year-old woman and two boys aged 10 y.o. and 9 y.o., were wounded by shell fragments.
• […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

• Zelenodolsk was shelled from the MLRS using banned cluster and phosphorus munitions. 1 civilian was wounded. The energetic infrastructure facility was destroyed.
• […]

New laws

Ukraine:

• [Support of the economy] The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted bill No. 7282 to simplify procedures in the field of urban planning under martial law. The law creates opportunities for the speedy restoration of settlements, as well as resolving the issue of providing temporary housing for citizens who have lost their homes as a result of Russian aggression.
• […]

Russia:

• [Support of the economy] The preferential VAT rate has been abolished for fractions of palm oil. The decision was made to reduce the use of palm oil in food products.
• […]

This was the free part of the military brief

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In a paid version:

• Airstrike, missile and MLRS damage
• Civilian casualties
• Video of russian prisoners
• New laws
• Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
• War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
• Alternative loss estimates
• Data archive.
• Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage, diagram of known airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, diagram of average duration of the air alerts in the regions.