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UKRAINE – STARTUP AND
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War in Ukraine / May 19

The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

👉 Lend-Lease and Western Strategy [Expert View]

Ukraine needs more weapons to fight back – the third phase of the war begins

It seems that right now Ukraine is preparing for the third and final phase of the war – the counteroffensive. This is evidenced by at least two elements.

First, Russia’s offensive is losing strength and the front line is shrinking even more every week. Due to this, the Russian army is trying to intensify the offensive, as well as to solve the remaining problems with logistics and communications. Despite heavy shelling, Russia has not yet shown serious results. Today, Russian Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu stated that the entire Luhansk region will be taken in the near future. It took three months, although there is still no certainty that the operation will succeed. There was no talk about the Donetsk region.

Secondly, the mood of Ukraine. Initially, the Minister of Defense, and now the head of the intelligence department, said that in the absence of the necessary weapons, Ukraine’s counteroffensive could turn into a protracted war. Right now, Ukraine needs medium-range and long-range missile systems, as well as strike aircraft, from its allies. As we wrote earlier, the Russian army has begun to build fortifications to defend already occupied positions, and without the necessary heavy equipment, the Ukrainian army will find it difficult to knock the enemy out of their positions.

Meanwhile, US intelligence points out that there is no other option for Ukraine than a military victory: despite the heavy army losses and sanctions, Putin will remain in power and rule Russia. There is no chance of major popular protests, so the war will continue as long as it is interesting to Russia’s leadership and personally to its czar.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

  • The Kyivsky district in Kharkiv was shelled again. The boiler house, which is located near the Endocrine Pathology Institute, was damaged. Due to the explosion of the boiler house, doors and windows were damaged at the institute. The explosion also shattered windows and doors in the surgical building of the oncology center. Half of the buildings of the Cancer Center were almost destroyed due to the previous shellings. The boiler house can be rebuilt. Except for the institute, it also provided heating for a kindergarten and two hospitals.
  • Russian troops shelled Pivnichna Saltivka. One person was hurt (1, 2).
  • Over the day the firefighters handled seven fires. Five of them were in the city and its districts: Kyivsky (was shelled in the morning), Saltivsky (Pivnichna Saltivka was shelled at noon) and the village of Oleksiivka.
  • […]

Kyiv region:

  • Air defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down one missile over the territory of the village of Motyzhin, Buchansky district, fired by Russian soldiers in the direction of Kyiv. Rocket fragments fell into the private sector on the residential buildings. 
  • […]

Sumy region:

  • Russian troops fired at the village of Stari Vyrky in Sumy district using artillery and mortars from the territory of the Russian Federation. As a result of the shelling, a residential house and surrounding buildings were damaged.
  • The border villages of Boyaro-Lezhachi and Brusky in the Konotop district were shelled by Russian troops using artillery and mortars.
  • […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

  • Novoandriivka, Orichiv, Novodanylivka, Zelene pole, Olhivske were shelled by Russian troops. As a result of shelling, the Orichiv elevator has been on fire since last week. As a result of the shelling, 290 houses in Robotine and Novopokrivka were left without electricity. 
  • […]

Luhansk region:

  • In total, 66 infrastructure facilities were damaged or destroyed during the day as a result of 43 attacks: 

            Popasna community – residential areas were shelled;
            Nyrkove – a line of five houses was destroyed;
            Zolote – six houses were destroyed;
            Vrubivka – three houses were destroyed;
            Rubizhne – three houses were destroyed. 

As a result of the shelling of Hirske, houses were destroyed, 3 people were injured, and one person        was reported dead. Lysychansk district destructions: Lysychansk – two multi-apartment and 10 single-family houses, Novodruzhesk – four houses, Pryvillya – three multi-apartment and six single-family houses.

Mykolaiv region:

  • In the afternoon Bereznehuvate community was shelled. At 23:30 Russian troops shelled Shyroke community. Five people were hurt due to the shellings over the day. 
  • […]

Donetsk region:

  • Russian troops launched an airstrike on the town. 5-storey building and other residential houses were damaged, as well as an office building. 6 people were injured.
  • The Russian army shelled Soledar, Bakhmut, Siversk, Avdiivka, Lyman, Mar’inka, Romanivka, Bakhmutske, Khrestyshche, Donetske, Kalynove, Sydorove and  New-York. 34 civilian targets were destroyed: residential buildings, a hospital, a sanatorium, a sports complex, a shopping center, and critical infrastructure facilities. According to the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, five people died: two in Bakhmut, one in Krasnohorivka, one in Avdiivka and one in Khrestyshche. Six people were injured (1, 2).
  • […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

  • The village was shelled three times over the day. 20 houses, storage facilities and vehicles were damaged. Two civilians got fragment wounds. 
  • […]

Chernihiv region:

  • While driving through a forest near the village of Mazhuhivka in Chernihiv district, a tractor driver on a telescopic loader ran into a mine left by Russian soldiers. As a result of the explosion, a tractor driver was hospitalized with a traumatic amputation of the lower limb. The loader received significant damage.
  • […]

Odessa region:

  • Russian troops launched missiles on the territory of the Odessa region with strategic aviation. As a result, the beach toilet building on the seashore was destroyed. 
  • […]

Lviv region:

  • Presumably, on May 20, a missile was shot down by air defense forces. The air alert continued from 08:00 on May 19 to 08:00 on May 20. 
  • […]

Zhytomyr region:

  • Russian troops fired missiles at the territory of Malin. As a result of the shelling, ~100 residential buildings, railway tracks, power lines, several wagons were damaged. Three people were injured.
  • […]

This was the free part of the military brief

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  • Civilian casualties
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  • Alternative loss estimates
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  • Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region, known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure.

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