War in Ukraine / May 27-29
Slowing down the pressure of sanctions
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Europe has launched five packages of sanctions against Russia and, in part, against the Republic of Belarus. All of them concerned personal sanctions, asset freezes, blocking of enterprises, banks, etc. But until recently, the issue of an embargo on oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe was postponed. This decision was to be included in the sixth package of sanctions.
But there is a chance that the decision will fail. For more than a month now, European countries have been discussing options for an embargo on gas and oil supplies, but no agreement has been reached. Oppose those who are heavily dependent on oil from Russia, in particular – Hungary. Moreover, unlike many of its neighbors, Hungary has no access to the sea, so it cannot easily build other supply chains for its territory. The situation is the same with several other countries.
In general, the issue of embargoes is extremely painful for Europe. There is no quick solution to abandon Russia as the largest supplier. Reconstruction of logistics routes, construction of new LNG terminals and pipelines is a long process that may last until 2027. In the current circumstances, countries will try to speed it up to a year, but all this through additional costs and rising prices for end users. That is why many countries and politicians oppose the embargo.
This is a kind of example of an expression that often appears in the current war – Realpolitik, when pragmatism prevails, rather than upholding certain values. The President of Ukraine also spoke about this, saying that in a conversation with representatives of Hungary they were very sympathetic to the losses among the civilian population, but answered directly: “Where can we get money for expensive oil?”.
Why is this important? Russia earns extra profits from the sale of oil and gas, according to various estimates – from $500 million to $1 billion daily. Europe is not the only market, but it is very large. His loss will cause problems with filling the budget and will put additional pressure on the Putin government to end hostilities. Experts point out that new buyers will be found in China or India, but without a complete replacement of lost markets.
Meanwhile, the price per barrel broke a new high – $120.
Latest war investigations of the Molfar team:
- Drama Theater in Mariupol
- Bombing of the children’s hospital and maternity hospital in Mariupol
- Strike in the center of Donetsk by rocket missile Tochka-U
Airstrike, missile and MRL damage
- A fire broke out in a specialized boarding school due to the shelling. A building and two specialty vehicles were damaged.
- In an urban-type settlement of Slatyne there is a wounded man due to shelling. Another 1 person was wounded in Balaklii. Derhachi, Tsupivka, Prudianka, Ruska Lozova, Pytomnyk, Nove, Dementiivka, Bezruky were also shelled.
- Shelling of civilian infrastructure in Ternova, Prudianka, Ruski Tyshky, Kutuzivka, Varvarivka, Petrivka, Mykhailivka, Korobochkyne, Studenok, Virnopillia.
- Two fires broke out in private houses and a household building because of the shelling.
- Russian troops shelled twice. As a result, a private house, an electrical substation with solar panels were damaged. The power plant was built with help of a loan on the territory of a former landfill. Pits from missile strikes are 6m deep and 11m in diameter.
- As a result of the shelling, 2 residents were injured by fragments from rockets. One of the shells did not explode – it flew into the kitchen of a private house.
- Osokorivka, Novovorontsovka, Blahodatne, Zorya, Tavriiske were shelled by Russian troops.
- As a result of the shelling with cluster munitions, civilian infrastructure was damaged. 6 people were injured.
- Russian troops fired at the border area of the village of Stari Vyrky from the territory of the Russian Federation using self-propelled artillery.
- Russian troops twice shelled the border area of the town of Seredyna-Buda, presumably using the 120-caliber mortars. During the first shelling at ~5:15 a.m., seven explosions were recorded. The second time the outskirts of the town were shelled at ~6:10-6:55 a.m., eight explosions were recorded. The local residents’ houses, outbuildings and fences were damaged. The land near the sewage treatment facilities was shelled, causing a threat of environmental disaster.
- Russian troops launched rockets at a poultry farm in Putyvl city in Konotop district. As a result of the shelling, buildings with equipment were destroyed and damaged. A blast wave with a radius of 500 m and rocket fragments damaged neighboring buildings, the ventilation system, power lines and water supply of the enterprise, windows were broken in a private house and two educational institutions near the epicenter of the explosion.
- Mali Shcherbaky, Kamianske, Charivne, Burlatske, Malynivka, Novopil, Poltavka, Zelene Pole, Temerivka, Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka, Zaliznychne, Novosilka, Scherbaky, Novoandriivka, Ztyzhzhya were shelled by russian troops.
Mala Tokmachka and Orichiv were shelled with SU-25. 2 women were killed, 3 people were injured as a result of artillery strikes in Stepnohyrsk and Orichiv. 2 persons were injured by artillery strikes in Komyshuvaha and Novoyakivlivka. As a result of artillery strikes on Komyshuvaha, Orichiv, Hulaipole, 10 houses, an apartment were damaged and 2 houses, a garage and a summer kitchen were destroyed. As a result of the shelling, 1100 households were left without electricity in Vasylivka district, 1871 in Polohy district, 290 in Zaporizhzhya district. In Orichiv, a low and medium pressure gas pipeline was damaged, 69 consumers were left without gas. In Vasylivka, a low-pressure gas pipeline was damaged in the first half of the day.
- Civilian infrastructure was damaged as a result of the shelling by Russian troops.
- Orichiv, Olhivske, Zaliznychne, Komyshuvakha, Poltaka, Bilohirya, Novomykolaivka, Novopil, Novosilka, Kamyanske, Stepove, Hulaipilske were shelled by russian troops.
A man was injured as a result of artillery shelling on Mala Tokmachka.
As a result of the shelling, 849 consumers in Polohy district and 1861 customers in Orichiv district were left without electricity. As a result of the shelling of Zaporozhets in the first half of the day, a low-pressure gas pipeline was damaged.
- Severodonetsk was shelled several times, and street battles started. 14 multi-story buildings were damaged. The village of Synetskyi was shelled. Destruction was recorded in towns and villages of the region: 9 houses – in Hirske, 4 houses – in Zolote, 4 houses -in Lysychansk, 12 houses – in Vrubivka, 2 houses – in Horikhove.
- On May 28, in Lysychansk, a shell hit a high-rise building. 4 local residents were hospitalized with injuries of varying severity. The Druzhba movie theater was destroyed by an air strike. 22 buildings were damaged.
Destruction of the residential buildings: 13 houses – in Severodonetsk, 11 houses – Hirske, 7 houses – in Toshkivka , 6 houses – in Vrubivka, 2 houses – in Nyrkove. Attack aircraft strikes near Ustynivka
The occupiers used ground attack aircraft near Dibrova.
- Russian troops shelled Korabelnyi district of the city for an hour and a half. One of the rockets exploded in the courtyard of a multi-storey residential building in one of the districts of the city, 20 meters from a kindergarten. Eight residential buildings, cars were damaged, trees were tumbled down. As a result, one civilian died, seven people were injured.
In total, 32 people were injured in the region during the day.
- Russian troops shelled Avdiivka, Lyman, Sviatohirsk, Zalizne, Mykolayivka, Krasnohorivka, Toretsk, Raihorodok, Donetske, New-York, Pryvillya, Shumy, Yahidne. The Russian army also used cluster munitions. 32 civilian facilities were destroyed: residential buildings, a fire department, a recreation centre, a construction and agricultural enterprise, and critical infrastructure. Slovianska heat power station was stopped due to regular shelling so its employees and their families could evacuate.
According to the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, four people died: in Lyman, Sviatohirsk, New-York. Four people were injured.
- The Russian army launched cruise missile strikes from Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers in the area of Bakhmut and Soledar. One person was killed in Bakhmut.
The Russian army shelled Avdiivka, Lyman, Bakhut, Sviatohirsk, Zalizne, Mykolayivka, Krasnohorivka, Toretsk, Raihorodok, Donetske, New-York, Pryvillya, Shumy, Yahidne. Russian troops also used cluster munitions. 25 civilian facilities were damaged, including residential buildings and a coke plant.
According to the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, two people were killed: in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Another four civilians were injured.
- Russian troops shelled the border area near the Senkivka checkpoint. ~15 explosions were recorded. Presumably, the shelling was carried out by an automatic grenade launcher.
- Three missiles hit the National Guard barracks and shooting range, one of the missiles hit the target. The rescue team is removing the debris, looking for people. As of May 27, 10 people died and 30-35 were injured. The missiles were launched from the Rostov region.
- The Kryvorizkyi region was shelled, the church was damaged – windows, a fence and a gate in the village were damaged. Velyka Kostromka. In Mar‘ianske, a drinking water collector was damaged.
This was the free part of the military brief
Read the full text + all archives in the paid version.
In two weeks, the subscription price will be $50/month, subscribe now for $30. We give half of the money for the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians.
In a paid version:
- Civilian casualties
- Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
- War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
- Alternative loss estimates
- Data archive.
- Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region, known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure.