War in Ukraine / June 29
The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.
The oil embargo has not yet produced visible results
Despite the fact that Europe and the United States began to actively abandon Russian oil, the real losses for the Russian economy are few. In fact, the country hardly feels them, and in June production even increased compared to April and May.
So far, we are talking about 10.7 million barrels per day. These are still not pre-war indicators, when the figure exceeded 11 million barrels, but more than the spring months, when production fell below 10 million barrels.
Due to what Russia managed to recover? Its oil is bought by everyone except Europe. And very active. Exports to India have grown 50 times: the country actively buys Russian oil, while also receiving a good discount. Considering the global price of $100+ per barrel, India’s price tag is $30 lower. China started buying Russian oil more actively and, which no one expected, Africa also.
Oil is delivered by tankers. Dozens of companies affiliated with Russia began actively chartering vessels and increasing oil exports from Russia. These are little-known companies without a clear ownership structure. Nevertheless, a buyer who wants to save money agrees and buys oil. The Russian Federation is confident that it will be able to keep production at a sufficient level.
But economists ask not to be in a hurry to rejoice. The dependence of the Russian budget on energy exports has grown from 36% before the war to more than 60% now. As a result, in the case of falling oil and gas prices, Russia will have big problems that will have to be solved by unpopular methods. In any case, we will not see the first really visible problems of the Russian economy before the end of the year, experts say. Sanctions do not work as quickly as we would like.
Latest investigations of the Molfar team:
- The modern cannons that may make the difference in Ukraine
- Judicial reform in Ukraine: analysis of the main principles and problems of reform
- Investigation into the relationship between ISPsystem, 1inch, FSS of the russian federation and crypto-businessmens
- StopFraud: an investigation into porn, gambling and russia
- Psychological portrait of a russian people
Airstrike, missile and MRL damage
- Russian troops shelled Izium and Chuhuiv districts in the morning. As a result, 1 person was killed, 5 more were injured, including an 11 year old girl.
- During the day, Russian troops fired on Malynivka in the Chuhuiv district from the MLRS. As a result of the shelling, 2 women aged 65 and 72, as well as an 11-year-old girl were wounded.
- Russian forces shelled the Khotin community.
- 20 shots from mortars, 25 shots from MLRS, 47 shots from artillery, a drone dropped an explosive device on the Krasnopilska community. 3 people were injured.
- Hulaipole and Kamyanske were shelled by Russian troops, 10 cases of civilian infrastructure damage were reported. In Hulaipole, a shell hit a 5-storey building.
- Russian troops are directing their main efforts to occupy Lysychansk, as well as to establish control over the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway. All available types of weapons are aplied to achieve this target. Multiple Russian aviation attacks were recorded. The majority of strikes hit the area of the Lysychansk refinery, the Donsoda plant, as well as Vovchoiarivka, Verkhnokamianka, and Siversk. It was confirmed that the police building in Lysychansk was completely destroyed. The body of a deceased woman was found under the rubble of one of the residential buildings.
- Russian troops shelled the Novhorod-Siversk community three times during the day, a total of 18 120-mm shells were fired.
- Russian troops shelled the territory of the Semenivska community three times, 25 shell strikes were recorded.
- Russian troops launched an X-22 type cruise missile on the territory of the city of Odesa from a Tu-22 aircraft. The Ukrainian air defense forces shot down the missile over the field outside the residential areas. As a result of the fall of the missile debris, dry grass caught fire.
- During the day, a total of 21 people were injured in the region. The city and the Bashtansky district were shelled. 2 people in the Halytsynivska community were injured during the day. In the afternoon, Pervomaisk community was shelled – 2 residential houses were damaged and 1 more was completely destroyed. A total of 10 missiles were fired across the region.
- The following settlements were under shelling: Avdiivka, Slovyansk, Krasnohorivka, Bahmut, Chasiv Yar, Soledar and the villages of Pervomaiske, Novomykolaivka, Sydorove, and Berestove. 13 houses, a meat processing plant, a coking plant, an ambulance, garages, and power lines were damaged. During the day, 19 strikes were recorded in the region. 40 civilian buildings were destroyed, 2 civilians were killed and another 3 were wounded
- For two days, Russian troops have been shelling the territory of the community. As a result, the windows in residential buildings, power lines, and a water tower are damaged.
- Knyazivka and Potomkyne suffered an air-missile strike.
- Shelling of Zelenodolsk and Shyroke communities (Hannivka and Shestirnia), the power lines were damaged.
- The missile attack didn’d cause any destructions. A fire broke out at the site of the hit.
This was the free part of the military brief
Read the full text + all archives in the paid version.
In two weeks, the subscription price will be $50/month, subscribe now for $30. We give half of the money for the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians.
In a paid version:
- Civilian casualties
- Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
- War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
- Alternative loss estimates
- Data archive.
- Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region, known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure.
You must be logged in to post a comment.