War in Ukraine / July 25

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Day 153: A strong South or strong East – is Russia’s dilemma

Now we can see the pause in active hostilities of the Russian army. It gives reason to the intelligence of Ukraine’s western partners to claim even more actively about the lack of forces of the Russian army. We can see that the pace of the offensive in the East has slowed down, and in Kherson is starting a counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army. So we have the next situation: Russia, having large but limited forces on such a wide front, must choose – to continue the offensive in the East or to start active defense in the South.

According to Western experts, Russia is faced with two major problems. The first is HIMARS and how effectively the Armed Forces of Ukraine use them to destroy warehouses. As a result, the supply is broken, which does not allow Russia to keep firepower at past rates. Another is the lack of infantry for active work in two directions at once. Therefore, the Russian leadership will be forced to choose where to direct its forces.

However, it is not worth relying only on Western forecasts. The offensive in the East continues, the fighting for the Vuhlehirska TES, which we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, continues and it is not known how long the Ukrainian army will be able to hold positions to stop the offensive from the South to Sloviansk. Because the number of enemy troops prevails. And even in the South, the offensive of Ukrainian forces cannot be called phenomenally fast: there are not enough forces for an active advance yet.

In general, some experts ask not to rush to conclusions about the forces of the Russian army: there is enough equipment in warehouses, the number of remaining missiles is not known for sure, and in case of a significant need, manpower can be replenished by forced mobilization.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is successfully using the available resources: high-precision weapons from partners and significant human resources.

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Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

• Russian troops from the territory of the Russian Federation fired at the community center with people inside – a 46-year-old woman was injured, 4 more people were rescued from under the rubble, 1 dead woman was discovered on July 26, 2 more people reamin blocked. Also, 3 rockets hit a school with an autonomous heating system, the building was partially destroyed. The heating network of the residential area “Aviator” was put out of action.
• […]

Sumy region:

• The territory of the community was shelled, 20 explosions were recorded.
• […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

• During the day, there were 10 cases of the civilian infrastructure destruction as a result of shelling by the Russian army. Kamyanske and Orichiv were shelled.
• As a result of the shelling, 2 household buildings caught fire.
• […]

Kherson region:

• At night, the town was shelled with cluster munitions, residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were damaged. In the afternoon there was an artillery strike.
• […]

Volyn region:

• 2 drones were shot down, debris fell on the residential buildings, as a result they were destroyed. 5 people were injured, including 3 children.
• […]

Mykolaiv region:

• As a result of shelling with cluster munitions in the Kharchatovka microdistrict of the village of Mishkove-Pohorilove near Mykolayiv, several residential buildings were destroyed and damaged. According to preliminary information, a 7-year-old child was injured.
• […]

Chernihiv region:

• 9 a.m.: shelling of the Snovsk community, 4 explosions were recorded, presumably mortars were used.

~10:30 a.m.: the territory near the village of Hirsk was shelled with the MLRS Grad, 4 explosions were recorded.

7 p.m.: the territory near the village of Mykhalchyna Sloboda was shelled with the MLRS Grad, 12 explosions were recorded.

In total, during the day, the Semenivka community was shelled 5 times from cannon artillery (24 explosions were recorded) and once from mortars (10 explosions).

Horodyanska community was hit 3 times with cannon artillery. 

• […]

Donetsk region:

• In Kramatorsk, the Russians damaged a residential building. In Konsytantynivka, the shells hit near residential buildings and a coffee shop (1, 2).
• […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

• The territories of Marhanets and Myrivska communities were shelled, in the Myrivska community 6 residential houses were damaged, a 10-year-old girl was injured.
• 2 rockets, fired from the aircraft, hit the territory of the agricultural enterprise, 2 hangars caught fire.
• […]

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War in Ukraine / July 22-24